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User quant profile

@chopper_trades

First seen Oct 8, 2026Last thesis 21h ago5 theses on 3 tokens in 7d

LiveUpdated 1m agoPublic Fomo profile

Descriptive statistics of this account's past theses and what happened to the token afterwards. Not a ranking of people and not a recommendation.

Research score

0–100 · shrunk toward 50 until there are enough resolved calls · never follower-based

—/ 100
Confidence: Insufficient dataToo few resolved calls to say anything reliable.

Based on 2 resolved calls

No score is shown: 2 resolved calls so far. A research score needs 5 resolved calls — expected ~13 Oct.

Composite of hit rate (35), lead time (20), low false positives (20), consistency (15) and median 24h return (10) over resolved calls, shrunk toward a prior of 50 with 20 pseudo-calls. Describes past calls only.

research-v1.0 · as of Oct 11, 2026

Research score history

Point-in-time snapshots · 2 shown · no number while confidence is insufficient

No research score yet — snapshots appear once at least 5 calls have resolved (for this account ~13 Oct).

Author metrics

Every value lists its sample size (N). Hit rate shows a Wilson 95% confidence interval.

Theses
5
N = 5 posted

Theses posted up to the snapshot.

Hit rate
0%
95% CI 0–66% · N = 2

Share of resolved calls that touched +25% within 72h.

Median lead time
—
N = 0 major moves

Thesis → first touch of +25%, over calls that reached it.

False positive rate
100%
N = 2

No major move and a negative 3-day return.

Median drawdown after call
-26.4%
N = 2

Lowest point within 72h after the call, median.

Consistency
—
N = 2

Needs ≥ 2 weeks with ≥ 2 resolved calls.

Outcome volatility
σ 3.4%
N = 2

Standard deviation of 24h returns after calls.

Sample size
2
resolved · 3 pending in view

Calls whose 72h outcome window has closed.

Outcome distribution — return 24h after each call

N = 2 · Positive after 24h 0% (95% CI 0–66%)

Small sample — treat as anecdotal
Median
-4.0%
CI -6.3% … -1.6%
Trimmed mean
-4.0%
10% each side
Mean
-4.0%
σ 3.4%
Range
-6.3% … -1.6%
Outcome distribution — return 24h after each call histogram2 samples in 3 bins from -6.3% to -1.6%.median-6.3%-1.6%-5%-4%-3%-2%
Outcome distribution — return 24h after each call box plotMedian -4.0%, interquartile range -5.1% to -2.8%, whiskers -6.3% to -1.6%, 0 outliers (min -6.3%, max -1.6%).-6.3%-1.6%-4.0%
p5
-6.1%
p10
-5.9%
p25
-5.1%
p50
-4.0%
p75
-2.8%
p90
-2.0%
p95
-1.8%

Sector specialization

Research score per narrative · shown only with ≥ 8 resolved calls in that narrative

No narrative has 8 or more resolved calls yet, so no sector strength is shown.

Not enough samples in other sectors: Meme (1)

Recent calls

Latest 25 theses with their outcome. Outcomes resolve 72 hours after posting; lead time = minutes to the first +25% touch.

  • $MAMAOCITADaily reminder. mamAOCita
    Posted
    21h ago
    Status
    Pending
    24h
    —
    Max return
    —
    Drawdown
    —
    Lead time
    —
  • $CLAUSTime for the fomo to begin https://x.com/founderclaus/status/2108419048455254326?s=46&t=CWmWFfzrPf2vc20OPwmijw
    Posted
    3d ago
    Status
    Pending
    24h
    +25.5%
    Max return
    —
    Drawdown
    —
    Lead time
    —
  • $NINJACAT🥷 🐱 📈
    Posted
    3d ago
    Status
    Pending
    24h
    -11.6%
    Max return
    —
    Drawdown
    —
    Lead time
    —
  • $CLAUSPeople will look back and say “I wish I took this claus entry”
    Posted
    3d ago
    Status
    Resolved
    24h
    -6.3%
    Max return
    +24.8%
    Drawdown
    -37.9%
    Lead time
    no +25% move
  • $MAMAOCITADaily reminder. mamAOCita
    Posted
    3d ago
    Status
    Resolved
    24h
    -1.6%
    Max return
    +20.5%
    Drawdown
    -15.0%
    Lead time
    no +25% move

Cohorts

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