User quant profile
@babycakez
First seen Oct 8, 2026Last thesis 16h ago15 theses on 3 tokens in 7d
Descriptive statistics of this account's past theses and what happened to the token afterwards. Not a ranking of people and not a recommendation.
Research score
0–100 · shrunk toward 50 until there are enough resolved calls · never follower-based
—/ 100
Confidence: Insufficient dataToo few resolved calls to say anything reliable.
Based on 2 resolved calls
No score is shown: 2 resolved calls so far. A research score needs 5 resolved calls — expected ~12 Oct.
Composite of hit rate (35), lead time (20), low false positives (20), consistency (15) and median 24h return (10) over resolved calls, shrunk toward a prior of 50 with 20 pseudo-calls. Describes past calls only.
research-v1.0 · as of Oct 11, 2026
Research score history
Point-in-time snapshots · 2 shown · no number while confidence is insufficient
No research score yet — snapshots appear once at least 5 calls have resolved (for this account ~12 Oct).
Author metrics
Every value lists its sample size (N). Hit rate shows a Wilson 95% confidence interval.
Theses
15
N = 15 posted
Theses posted up to the snapshot.
Hit rate
50%
95% CI 9–91% · N = 2
Share of resolved calls that touched +25% within 72h.
Median lead time
5.0h
N = 1 major moves
Thesis → first touch of +25%, over calls that reached it.
False positive rate
50%
N = 2
No major move and a negative 3-day return.
Median drawdown after call
-50.0%
N = 2
Lowest point within 72h after the call, median.
Consistency
—
N = 2
Needs ≥ 2 weeks with ≥ 2 resolved calls.
Outcome volatility
σ 14.0%
N = 2
Standard deviation of 24h returns after calls.
Sample size
2
resolved · 13 pending in view
Calls whose 72h outcome window has closed.
Outcome distribution — return 24h after each call
N = 2 · Positive after 24h 50% (95% CI 9–91%)
- Median
- -9.3%
- CI -19.2% … +0.6%
- Trimmed mean
- -9.3%
- 10% each side
- Mean
- -9.3%
- σ 14.0%
- Range
- -19.2% … +0.6%
- p5
- -18.2%
- p10
- -17.2%
- p25
- -14.2%
- p50
- -9.3%
- p75
- -4.3%
- p90
- -1.4%
- p95
- -0.4%
Sector specialization
Research score per narrative · shown only with ≥ 8 resolved calls in that narrative
No narrative has 8 or more resolved calls yet, so no sector strength is shown.
Recent calls
Latest 25 theses with their outcome. Outcomes resolve 72 hours after posting; lead time = minutes to the first +25% touch.
- $ZCFeels like that last plummet was official bottom earlier today. Felt it in my plums + saw a bunch of calls for 4-5m - generally a bottom sign when everyone screaming for another 40-50% lower, usually means it’s already oversold. Now we wait for a bit of settling and then it’s rocket time - especially as btc reclaims 87k+ area. Not sure how many of you understand how much capital is ziplined waiting to enter this coin. Zipcoin has alot of mindshare. It’s one of those coins that’s on alot of peoples watch list. Hated and loved by many on the timeline, Once we go back up, many of those who capitulated will revenge buy back in for the 2nd and 3rd time and amplify the propulsion and rocket us to 100m. This can happen very fast. We are in an information system and price changes as fast as information changes. Zoom out. The comparables are already enormous: $VVV ≈ $1.1B. $XMR ≈ $10B. $ZEC ≈ $21B. Those are today’s valuations. Imagine a bull cycle where those grow another 10–20×. That’s the aggressive upside scenario: a much larger privacy sector, with room for emerging projects to reach valuations today’s leaders already command. From a ~$10M starting point, $ZC reaching VVV’s current valuation would mean roughly 110× the currebt $zc market cap. $zc has a 300b+ ethereum blockchain worth of capital that will pay attention after it hits 100m. This isn’t far-fetched. Many whales don’t even get out of bed to look at a coin until its past 100m mcap. It would take serious adoption and execution. But that’s the scale of the ambition and the team behind zipcoin appears to be world class in terms of shipping and exceeding roadmap deadlines. Today’s giants could be tomorrow’s benchmarks. $ZC has something to build toward. Return to Mainnet. $zc $dzhamster
- Posted
- 16h ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- —
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $ZCFu*k, now im kinda fomo about price being 10 and not have aped more when it was 8-9. And when it was 8-9, I had balls in my throat. Bipolar as hell.
- Posted
- 21h ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- —
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $ZCInvert the chart and it looks fire tbh
- Posted
- 23h ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- —
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $ZCFeel those knots in your stomach? Is your sphincter tightening up? Thats called a bottom or the bottom is close. Hold onto your butt cheeks and grab your nuts. After this is over, it’ll be worth it.
- Posted
- 1d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- —
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $ZCBottom
- Posted
- 1d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- -20.6%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $ZCEveryone wants to ge a whale until they have to swim under water. Run it back.
- Posted
- 1d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- -13.3%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $ZCBattle tested and preparing for next leg up. God candle loading.
- Posted
- 1d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- -26.7%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $ZCThis is what you want to see. The consolidating range is punishing weak hands. No conviction. Few more large holders took the L and clipped out. One of them was his 2nd time buying back in only to take another fat L. Gentlemen and ladies: You can’t larp your way to 100m and certainly not a billy. You must believe. If holding was easy, everyone would do it. You must have the purest faith in your choice to buy and hold this coin. You must believe in where this is headed. You must dream. Otherwise the range will chop you up, and those who have the strongest conviction will buy your precious zipcoins for zents on the zollar. This is what builds a solid foundation to teleport to zipillions Fuck I’m bullish - clapped another 10 bagger. Return to Mainnet. $zc $dzhamster
- Posted
- 2d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- -27.0%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $ZCFor those of you who are new to parabolic rises in price: we are in a consolidating range at the moment. Price will go up and down between 20m and 12m. Your best move: Hold and wait and/or Buy dips on the low points of the range. Nothing has changed. New people in, old people out. This takes a few days and you see the range get tighter until we breakout for the next leg up. If this bothers you, I recommend exercise, touching grass, spending time with friends and family. Take some time for this to settle out. Avoid the temptation to cut or trim and chase the shiny new object. Nothing has changed. Zipillions. $ZC $DZHAMSTER
- Posted
- 2d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- -39.8%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $DARKOvernight this thing got a real venue. This morning the price is acting like it knows. MEXC listed $DARK on Meme+ while most people were asleep. A few hours later DarkSwap put a face on the product. @Crasskitty, head of product, one of NEAR’s first ten, building since 2019. She posted that she’s putting her name on it. Audit is in progress. They’re hiring another NEAR dev. She said she’s not interested in a narrative that only works as a narrative. Today at 4pm UTC she’s on the NEAR Legion open mic, and NEAR Legion invited her. That’s not a reply-guy thread. That’s the chain showing up. The product is the part people keep skipping. Private swaps from Solana, no wallet connect, NEAR Intents underneath. Holders get paid in wNEAR because the pool is paired to NEAR. Custom pair on Stonk, Pump.fun verified, Moonshot spotlight, and now a CEX. Yesterday it pushed about $10 million and did $7 million-plus in volume while the rest of the tape was getting rinsed. It cooled. This morning it’s green again. NEAR is a $6 billion chain. $DARK is still around $5 million. Even 1% of that is more than a 10x, and that’s the lazy version of the comp. ZEC already ran the privacy trade. This is the Solana door into the same idea, with a doxxed builder and a listing that did not exist last night. If you held the flush, you’re holding a product that just got an exchange and a name. If you sold the red candle, you sold it before either of those existed. Let there be Dark.
- Posted
- 2d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- -24.8%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $DARKHead of product growth: https://x.com/crasskitty/status/2108368601996746776?s=46 Let there be Dark.
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- +43.5%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $DARKAlright so DARK was up 170% yesterday/last night. Jumped from #13 to #5 on StonkFun, picked up 5,200 holders in three days, and did $12M+ in volume. Meanwhile StonkFun itself still ranked third in on-chain protocol revenue, behind only Hyperliquid and Pump.fun. So the platform is fine. The chart just looks ugly. And the one thing ripping through the bleed is a privacy coin. That’s the part that got me. ZEC already ran from about $500 to $1,700. NEAR nearly tripled on Intents. On StonkFun the privacy theme is what actually moved: ZCAT, a cat in a paper bag with no privacy tech, hit $170M in four days. Nullmask touched $35M last week. $DARK is the token for DarkSwap, a live private-swap app on NEAR Intents, the rails that have cleared $30B+ across 35 chains. They just announced Confidential Intents on DarkSwap. Dark Pool on NEAR is targeted for late October. Their own ZK pools are already built, waiting on audit. It also pays you while you sit there. The 1% creator fee comes in as wNEAR. Half goes to wallets holding 100K+ $DARK twice a day, half buys ZEC for the treasury. The main pool is paired against NEAR, so you get that upside too. And because it’s top five on StonkFun, the platform’s own flywheel buys and burns it around the clock. At $5M, Nullmask’s current cap is about 4.5x that, ZCAT’s is about 9x, and ZCAT’s peak is 34x. A cat meme got there. This is a live product on those rails, priced at a ninth of one. Let there be $Dark.
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- +11.0%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $DARKWas hoping for lower. Maybe I’m wrong, but sentiment is already really bad. Sellers seem exhausted and most tourists probably already Jeeted out. Feels bottomed here or the bottom is nigh. Gonna step back in before someone candles it on me. Rezume ze pamp. Let there be Dark.
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Pending
- 24h
- +10.8%
- Max return
- —
- Drawdown
- —
- Lead time
- —
- $ZCYou tourists didn’t learn the first time or the second time. Alright, round three then. Each trip down to hell makes this coin that much more stronger. The zipcoin reversal will be so violent it will have people begging for 40m mcap. Game time.
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Resolved
- 24h
- +0.6%
- Max return
- +47.6%
- Drawdown
- -47.1%
- Lead time
- 5.0h
- $STOCKERStocker feeling loaded. Its time is upon us. Will be surprised to not see 20m in a week or less.
- Posted
- 3d ago
- Status
- Resolved
- 24h
- -19.2%
- Max return
- +0.1%
- Drawdown
- -52.8%
- Lead time
- no +25% move
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